As of 11:00 am EST on August 31, Hurricane Dorian is 415 miles east of West Palm Beach Florida, moving W at 8 mph. Current maximum sustained wind speeds are 150 mph, making it a strong category 4 hurricane. Over the last few advisories, the NHC continues to forecast a northward turn for Dorian. While the current advisory suggests that Dorian could potentially skirt Florida, it is paramount to remember Florida remains in the cone of uncertainty and conditions could still change. Even this close to landfall, uncertainty is still high.
The operational models continue to show more agreement regarding the likely track the storm will take. However, the ECMWF and GFS ensembles are not forecasting Dorian’s northward turn to be as soon as various other models. The next 24 hours will be critical in determining the storm’s potential impact. Any significant changes to the atmospheric conditions could present an altered landfall scenario.